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Wednesday, May 15, 2013

The Fear Factor: How Scared Are People?

By Jim Clifton, Gallup Chairman and CEO, and Deepak Chopra, M.D.

Over the past decade the word “fear” has become all too familiar. After 9/11, critics of the war on terror called it fear-mongering. After the financial crash in 2008, living in a climate of fear became the lot of millions of people who lost their jobs, retirement accounts, and homes. But what about the most basic fear, which undermines society itself, the fear of bodily harm, either through crime or terrorism?

Walking the streets in countries around the world carries a real risk. The incidence of kidnapping has skyrocketed in Mexico and South America. Recently, the shocking rate of rape in India has come to light. Religious factions in the Islamic world wreak havoc and death for ordinary citizens.

In the face of such violence, the prevalence of fear can have a profound effect on the health, wellbeing, and economic development; if a society is in a constant state of fear, it won’t produce anything good.

Since this issue has such strong implications, Gallup’s World Poll set out to quantify fear of bodily harm. The usual measure, police reports and crime statistics, aren’t particularly reliable, since what they report is how many criminals were pursued or caught. If a city has a lousy police force, it won’t catch many criminals, and thus it may appear that there isn’t much crime. (Ironically, if a reform-minded mayor brings in an effective police chief, and the chief does a great job at arresting more criminals, it can present the appearance of an increase in crime.) Another contributing factor is non-reporting. Statistics can’t reveal the large number of victims who don’t go to the police after being robbed, raped, or assaulted on the streets. Sad to say, unreported crime is a major factor globally.

In trying to give governments a more accurate picture of crime and fear in a community, Gallup scientists found one survey question that gets to the heart of the matter: “Do you feel safe walking alone at night in the city or area where you live?” The answer to that single question tells leaders almost everything they need to know about their citizens’ sense of safety. People who feel unsafe are preoccupied to the point that their wellbeing deteriorates. Over time, fear worsens how their entire lives will turn out.

The results of our research are stark. We found that women in sub-Saharan Africa, for example, don’t feel safe walking just 100 meters from their villages, possibly because they fear being raped or beaten. As a result, they can’t walk to markets to buy or sell goods. In the event that their fear is lifted, these women would increase Africa’s GDP a little or a lot with their lost economic activity.

The same effect can strike closer to home. One of us, Jim Clifton, lives in Georgetown, an affluent neighborhood in Washington, D.C. Several years ago, Georgetown had a serious crime spree, and people started going home directly after work -- once home, they tended to stay in. As fear spread about walking alone after dark, spending on everyday things like shopping and dining out decreased significantly. The neighborhood’s economy suffered until law and order was restored through an ambitious effort by local law enforcement.

These are just two examples of fear’s pernicious reach. Leaders who want to dramatically reduce fear among their citizens would be wise to make the Gallup fear metric central to their strategies -- our findings are as important, we feel, as police reports and crime rates. Here are some of the basic findings:

% AFRAID (to walk alone in their neighborhood at night)
Venezuela 74%  
Afghanistan 60%  
Russia 50%
Congo 50%
Mexico 44%
India 35%
United States 25%
Canada 16%
China 16%
Hong Kong 11%

Americans deserve to be shocked to find that a quarter of their fellow citizens are afraid to walk the streets. Gallup tracks the fear score of U.S. citizens nightly and finds huge variance by city. For instance, in the U.S., the three big metro areas with the least fear are Minneapolis, Denver, and Raleigh -- with about 20% of their citizens reporting they have fear walking alone at night. At the other end are Memphis and New Orleans, where more than a whopping 40% of citizens say they fear walking alone at night.

Fear is sometimes linked with actual danger, but that’s not the real point. Fear is personal and subjective. Fear gains its power, as terrorists well know, through the perception that one is in danger.

We feel any government that believes in open communication should publish the fear index for their city or nation, to start a dialogue about how to reduce the causes of fear. Closing the gap between perception and reality, as far as risks are concerned, is equally important. That 25% of Americans who are afraid to walk alone doesn’t mean that one out of four of us is in danger of bodily harm on any given night.

Gallup doesn’t conduct research with the goal of endorsing specific solutions. A rigid law and order society like Singapore is very different than life in the United States, as is the enforced conformity of China. On the other hand, the perception of fear, as it arises in the individual, has known causes. People become more afraid when:

  • They feel isolated and alone.
  • Their surroundings undergo rapid change.
  • Minorities and outsiders are labeled “them,” who are totally unlike “us.”
  • Support structures begin to deteriorate, including police, fire departments, churches, and designated services for the poor and elderly.
In other words, a negative result on the fear index calls for better solutions than clamping down on civil liberties and sending the police out on random stop-and-search patrols. For any leader who cares about this issue, we’ve built consistent sampling frames across 160 countries that represent the vast majority of the world’s population, and Gallup analysts again found huge variance in the hearts and minds of citizens by region.

Globally, the implications of these data are fascinating. Imagine how much different a person’s peace of mind is in Venezuela, where 74% are afraid to walk alone at night, or in Afghanistan, where nearly 60% are afraid, versus Canada (16%) or Hong Kong (10%). Think about how much more psychological energy a society has when people don’t live with chronic anxiety. In countries like the U.S., under conditions many would consider a climate of fear, one only has to witness how a relatively low anxiety level can impact entrepreneurship, innovation, health, and wellbeing -- all the things that make human development possible.

This post originally appeared in the San Francisco Chronicle.


Anonymous said...
May 18, 2013 at 8:59 AM  

Jim, "fear" of government might be interesting if a reliable measurement could be developed. In addition, comparative data between restrictive gun control states vs. concealed carry states would be interesting. Even more revealing would be citizens who do carry vs. those in the same area who don't.
Keep up the good work and especially the insights provided by your column.

Anonymous said...
May 18, 2013 at 9:42 AM  

Jim, your column provides a great insight to the practical application of the data so I hope you will continue it.
With regard to the "fear" factor, I believe a measurement of "fear" of government would provide interesting insights. I would also be interested in a "fear" comparison study of those Americans who chose to carry a concealed handgun vs. those who don't vs. those who are prohibited. A gun in the household vs. no gun would also be interesting.
Thank you again and keep up the good work. BL

Editor said...
May 18, 2013 at 2:52 PM  

Jim, your insights are very helpful so I hope you will continue with the posts. I do my own analytical work with your data and data from other resources but it is always interesting to see conclusions reached by other professionals.
I would be interested in "fear" findings that compare households with guns vs. those without and state-by-state comparisons using concealed carry availability as the measure.
Thank you again and keep up the good work.

Anonymous said...
June 13, 2013 at 5:26 PM  

I am sure you are not advocating that the public carry guns in an answer to how fearful they are walking our city streets. Our right to bear arms is an antiquated way of thinking and was practical during the time when there was more unpredictability in our fledgling society, e.g., the wild west mentality. I am not sure if your survey included Japan, but I would suspect the percentage of people fearful of walking the street at night is significantly lower than the U.S. True that the fact of Japan being a highly homogeneous society (not as ethnically integrated as many western societies) has an impact on the perception of safety among its citizens, but guns being outlawed in the country has probably been a significant factor too. Unfortunately for the U.S. we have gone beyond the point of no return, whereby accessing a firearm is much easier than most other countries. The thought that good guys as well as bad guys have access to these weapons does not make anyone feel any more at ease in walking the streets at night. Changing the behavior and attitude of a nation is a monumental task. Our nation of rich cultural heritage and diversified ethnicity works through behaviors shaped by the letter of the law. The very laws that were meant to protect its citizens have become so convoluted/complex (worse than the tax codes), that it has had a counterproductive impact to our society.

Anonymous said...
June 13, 2013 at 7:44 PM  

I have not walked at night for about 10 to 15 years I can not remember.As a younger person I went out all the time at night.
This is the first time I have ever seen the question posted It is interesting that anyone would actually still consider going out in the evening.Unless in a group of younger folk This has actually raised all sorts of questions in my mind.With grown up children living away from home.

Anonymous said...
June 13, 2013 at 7:47 PM  

I live in S.A. no going out at night is not a good idea at all

Anonymous said...
June 25, 2013 at 6:29 PM  

Fear can be dealt with in three ways: 1) faith or belief that regardless of what happens to your "body or possessions" in life, that you will go on.
2)a way to prevent mental illness which causes people to perpetrate crimes against each other, animals, etc.
3)a better way of dealing with mental illness - clearly what we have in place is not working

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